Probability of a White Christmas

Above graphic shows the probability of having 1″+ of snow on the ground on Christmas.
Based on an image from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

The topic of a white Christmas is one that’s been thrown around a lot. To simplify the data, the NCDC uses a base of 1″ of snow on the ground on December 25th to qualify as a “White Christmas.” After looking at long-term averages, they have come up with the probability of a white Christmas.

Across Connecticut:
Generally, the higher elevations of northwestern Connecticut have the highest probability of seeing a white Christmas. There, the percent probability ranges from roughly 50 to 70% of the time. The rest of inland Connecticut falls into the 25 to 50% range. Portions of extreme southeastern Connecticut actually come in slightly below 25%.
There is some conflicting data, but this is the most official detailed set of percentages I could find for the region. The “normal” snow depth for Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks on December 25th is 1.3″, indicating that the probability of a white Christmas there is likely a little bit above 50%.