Probability of a White Christmas

Above graphic shows the probability of having 1″+ of snow on the ground on Christmas.
Based on an image from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

The topic of a white Christmas is one that’s been thrown around a lot. To simplify the data, the NCDC uses a base of 1″ of snow on the ground on December 25th to qualify as a “White Christmas.” After looking at long-term averages, they have come up with the probability of a white Christmas.

Across Connecticut:
Generally, the higher elevations of northwestern Connecticut have the highest probability of seeing a white Christmas. There, the percent probability ranges from roughly 50 to 70% of the time. The rest of inland Connecticut falls into the 25 to 50% range. Portions of extreme southeastern Connecticut actually come in slightly below 25%.
There is some conflicting data, but this is the most official detailed set of percentages I could find for the region. The “normal” snow depth for Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks on December 25th is 1.3″, indicating that the probability of a white Christmas there is likely a little bit above 50%.

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Quincy is a meteorologist and storm chaser who travels around the country documenting and researching severe weather. He has on-air experience with stations such as WTNH-TV in New Haven, CT and WREX-TV in Rockford, IL. He was most recently a digital meteorologist for

After achieving his B.S. degree in Meteorology at Western Connecticut State University (WCSU) in 2009, he returned as a University Assistant to help produce weather broadcasts. He also gave guest lectures and worked on website design.

He has over nine years of professional weather forecasting experience and his forecasts have been featured in newspapers and on radio stations in multiple states.

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