Isolated Severe Storms Today 7/28/14
The setup includes low pressure moving through New York State with a cold front swinging toward New England from the west. Across southern New England, visible satellite and radar was showing some breaks in the action late this morning. As the day goes on, daytime heating should allow for the Connecticut River Valley and adjacent areas to see temperatures reach the lower 80s. This instability will coincide with a strengthening low-level jet, meaning that any trigger for convection could result in strong to severe thunderstorms. There are other smaller features scattered across the area, including a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over central New England that may another focal point for storm development.
The main focus is from north-central Connecticut into central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Here, the strongest heating is expected to line up with the timing of the cold front to be the most favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. Storms may produce gusty winds and some hail. The storm mode will likely be a broken line of storms with a few discrete cells possible, all developing by mid to late afternoon near I-91. However, a discrete storm or two may also develop near a front in the vicinity of the New Hampshire/Massachusetts border. As the storms advance eastward, they may merge into a fairly healthy squall line before weakening across northeastern Connecticut and interior eastern Massachusetts early this evening. There is a somewhat enhanced threat of brief tornadoes across the area, particularly from northern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire. The limiting factor here may be lingering cloud-cover from earlier morning convection. A spin-up cannot be ruled out further south across southern Massachusetts and Connecticut, although the best low-level wind shear is in place north of Worcester as of this morning. Notice the backed near-surface winds out of the southeast:
Again, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later today across much of the area. Stay tuned to changing weather conditions and you can follow me on Twitter @danburyweather for updated information throughout the day. If I’m out in the field, @stormchaserQ is the handle I will be using to share live storm trends, conditions and reports.
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