Targeting Central Kansas 4/24
The storm threat today across the Plains is split into two areas. One is just ahead of a surface low in Kansas and another is further south across north Texas and vicinity.
I am heading to central Kansas, where I expect there will probably be a tornado or two. Since instability isn’t overly impressive, a more significant event appears unlikely.
The HRRR has been very consistent in firing at least one supercell-type structure in west-central Kansas by 3-4 p.m. Knowing the model bias, this might be an hour or so premature, but regardless, the area of initiation makes sense. Satellite imagery late this morning showed an area of low pressure in southwestern Kansas with a boundary draped just to its northeast. Surface observations indicate a modest warm sector being drawn north with dew-points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. At the same time, some clearing has also been noted.
The HRRR shows one cell in particular, in the vicinity of Russel, being the most dominant and with the apparent greater potential of producing a tornado by 5 to 6 p.m. or so. Other storms will probably fire across central Kansas late in the afternoon, but the storm mode is progged to favor clusters and less of a tornado threat with time. With that said, if any storms can take advantage of a small wedge of warm, moist air and form along the boundary/quasi-stationary front, and remain discrete, tornadoes will remain possible.
Due to the road network, terrain and proximity to a triple point, I am favoring central Kansas over Texas for chasing today.
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