10/9/2015 Tornado Probability

odds151008This is an experimental forecast graphic for the probability of a tornado. The probability of a tornado within the teal shaded area is 10% on Friday, while the probability of a tornado within the lime green color is 30%.

It is important to note that this graphic is not analogous to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado outlooks. The main point here is to convey that there is roughly a 30% probability of one tornado on Friday. With the SPC outlooks, a 30% risk area is essentially highlighting a much greater potential for tornadoes when compared to this experimental graphic.

To further explain, there may be dozens of cities within the 10% shading, but this graphic does not imply that each of those locations has a 10% of seeing a tornado. Instead, it is suggesting that the odds of one tornado occurring anywhere within the 10% risk area is simply 10%.

Overall, the forecast calls for a 35% probability of a tornado anywhere in the lower 48 United States on Friday, EDT.

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Quincy is a meteorologist and storm chaser who travels around the country documenting and researching severe weather. He has on-air experience with stations such as WTNH-TV in New Haven, CT and WREX-TV in Rockford, IL. He was most recently a digital meteorologist for weather.com.

After achieving his B.S. degree in Meteorology at Western Connecticut State University (WCSU) in 2009, he returned as a University Assistant to help produce weather broadcasts. He also gave guest lectures and worked on website design.

He has over nine years of professional weather forecasting experience and his forecasts have been featured in newspapers and on radio stations in multiple states.