April 30 Severe Threat
Tornadoes and large to very large hail will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening over parts of Oklahoma and Texas, while another focus area for tornadoes may evolve in southern Illinois and surrounding areas....
Category: Severe Outlooks
Ohio Valley Severe Threat: 4/3/18
Three regimes for potentially severe convection on Tuesday are as follows: Warm front from central Indiana to central Ohio. Pre-frontal trough from central/southern Indiana into western/central Kentucky and southwestern Ohio. Cold front from west...
AR/KS/MO/OK Severe Threat: Thursday, March 9th
Thursday PM is gradually becoming more interesting with respect to a localized severe threat across the southeastern KS/southwestern MO/northeastern OK/northern AR vicinity. The large scale pattern is not particularly interesting, but a wave of...
Midwest/Lakes Severe Setup: June 22, 2016
A threat for severe thunderstorms with large hail, destructive winds and a few tornadoes is taking aim at portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes late this afternoon into tonight. Chicago is very close...
Closing Out April With A Bang?
April is seen as a transition month during the severe weather season, as the frequency of tornadoes typically picks up rather quickly through the month. Despite what the calendar has to say, tornado activity...
Arkansas Severe Threat: Sunday, March 13th
Graphics courtesy of College of DuPage A localized threat of severe thunderstorms, including possible tornadoes, targets Arkansas Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. A compact shortwave trough approaches from Oklahoma during the afternoon, with...
Looking A Month Ahead: March Week 2
It’s Monday evening and the new Euro weeklies are out, so it’s time to look ahead at what the rest of March may have in store, as well as early April. Despite all the...
A Casual Look at the Rest of March
A pattern change is soon underway that will leave much of the U.S., especially the eastern two thirds, feeling spring fever. Unlike patterns in recent years, a prevalent ridge of high pressure off or...
Tornado Outbreak Expected Tuesday
A tornado outbreak appears likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee. Over a broad area from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee and lower Ohio valleys, scattered...
Tuesday Tornado Threat – Sunday PM Update
A tornado threat is still being closely monitored for Tuesday, as computer model forecasts and trends have been fairly consistent with the potential for severe weather on February 2nd for quite some time. There really are...
Tornado Threat for Tuesday 2/2
The threat for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, continues for Tuesday. The area of focus is the lower Mississippi Valley into portions of the Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio Valley. Nothing significant has changed from...
Early Thoughts: Groundhog Day Severe Threat
A notable threat of severe thunderstorm activity in early February has been showing up in the models for several days now. As the event gets closer, confidence is increasing that a setup favorable for...
Weekend Severe Threat: Dec. 12-13
Another vigorous through is forecast to sweep through the south-central states over the next few days, bringing a threat of thunderstorms to the region. Although this threat looks substantially less impressive than the event...
10/9 Isolated Severe Threat
A low-end threat for severe thunderstorms exists on Friday across the Middle Atlantic region and Central Appalachians, perhaps extending as far north as southeastern New York and southern New England. As we move through October,...
Labor Day Severe Threat
Morning observations placed a surface low over central Kansas with a frontal boundary draped northeastward into lower Missouri Valley. Winds along and just north of the boundary were out of the east. Along and...
Sept. 4th-7th Severe Threats
I think this update is at least marginally supported by the expected setups coming through the Labor Day holiday weekend. I want to stress that each of these four days is looking like relatively...